FX Market Outlook 08/04/20

If you had to take one trade today, and it had to be a winner, what would your process be for entering that trade? Think about that for some minutes.

Let’s get onto the markets.

USDCHF

Lovely bounce from the area we spoke about in the last outlook. These are the types of area to get involved at.

USDCAD

I am offered here for now, looking for a small bounce into the lower white dotted line. This is very close to filling.

GBPUSD

Daily Chart
Hourly Chart

As well as the trades we spoke about in the last outlook, there is something else setting up.

Looking on the Daily chart, we had a bullish engulfing yesterday at what I have marked as a Daily level. If we break the interim high on the hourly chart, I am certain we will grab the liquidity above the triple top. My entry will be on a pullback once we break the high.

GBPJPY

I’ve had to put this on a four hour chart because the level is so big. A clean break and close above this structure will have me hunting longs on a rounded retest of the level.

AUDUSD

Same as above, break and acceptance above the level gets me into a long trade.

And that’s it. Quite a lot to be on the lookout for into the second half of this week. Take care!

FX Market Outlook 06/04/20

This was going to be a ‘week in review’, but since I took 0 trades last week, this post is going to be a ‘what happened and what happens next’.

Patience was of utmost importance this week. One key method of thinking, which changed my approach a lot, is thinking it’s incomprehensible to be stopped out on a trade. If I look at a trade idea, I want to think ‘I will not be stopped on that trade’. It should be surprising. Only take the winning trades.

Let’s get on with it.

EURUSD

I was waiting for this long all week. The fill missed by 1.5 pips. Very annoying but it happens.

We can see multiple bar highs in the region of 1.0838, we were also past ATR on the day. I chose that specific area for a bid because it’s the last naked high in the area. My stop is marked by the cross. My target was the upper dashed line (which hit in the next candle). Onto the next now.

GBPUSD

Two areas to watch in GBPUSD, shown on the Daily chart. The upper level for a short and lower for a long.

The upper level will be a sell limit at the last hourly low, the lower level I’ll wait for bullish price action because I can’t see a clear price for a limit order.

EURJPY

Had to put this one onto a daily chart because the level is so prominent. Fairly standard break and acceptance below the red level, retest to get me into a trade.

USDJPY

The opposite of EURJPY which is slightly strange due to the correlation. Very interesting area for early in this coming week.

USDCHF

This is an interesting area on the hourly chart. Ideally this area will be past the daily ATR when I enter the trade.

Gold

Big area below market, I spoke about this one here, it just hasn’t triggered yet.

Silver

Top area I will put a sell limit in, big level visible on the weekly chart.

Bottom area I will wait for a clean break and acceptance above, then look to get long.

CADCHF

I want a clean break and close above this area on the daily chart to start looking for longs. We can see a few interesting looking candles on the weekly chart too.

NZDCHF

Same as CADCHF really. There’s a possibility these setups trigger or invalidate at the same time and likely won’t be entered in tandem either.

And that’s it for this week’s roundup. It’s a shame there weren’t any actual trades taken, but if the market isn’t looking ripe on my timeframe, I sit on my hands.

Stay safe.

FX Week In Review 23-27/03/20

A relatively successful week in fx markets for me. We started on the back foot taking a few losses, but more than made up for it on Thursday and Friday. +3.72R for the week. Let me know in the comments if you enjoy these Outlooks and Roundups and I’ll try to keep doing them!

GBPCAD D1 Short -0.58R

This trade was spoken about in this article, I was looking for a large move to take the other side of the weekly range. In hindsight I think my target may have been too aggressive, as we had a large daily and possibly weekly level at 1.6554 which we bounced off of perfectly.

CADCHF H4 Long -0.81R

This trade was an aggressive entry at half risk into a weekly bias I had/have. I exited near the low when my entry level flipped and became resistance, then we closed at a new low. We haven’t really gone anywhere from my original entry level. I’m still looking for longs if we get a break and retest of the blue area.

Gold H1 Short +0.57R

This trade was a beauty. Lovely level past ATR on the day. Not much more to be said.

AUDUSD H1 Short -1R

Very annoying trade. I was initially looking to get long, however, my entry missed by a pip and we bounced, but we bounced into a little level just above my entry. If we’re bouncing long from a level that big and can’t lift off past that little level above, I don’t want it when it comes back.

The day then closed as a shooting star false break through the level and off the red weekly low. I got short off the blue zone and stopped for -1R not too long after.

USDCAD H1 Short +2.64R

Short from the red arrow. Played it down to the white dotted level which was just past ATR.

USDCAD H1 Long +1.28R

As I got out of my short trade above I cut/reversed long into this level past ATR. My target was the little level above just above, which was filled on the next candle. Lovely trade.

NZDUSD H1 Long +1.62R

A nice finisher for the week on Friday. Big blue zone and acceptance above. I exited this trade at the upper white line due to it being 4pm on a Friday, no way am I holding over the weekend during these market conditions.

USDCHF, AUDUSD Market Outlook 25/03/20

USDCHF

Daily:

Hourly:

Setup: Break and retest to get long towards Inside Day Failure Target

Level: 9838-9850

Notes: We know inside day failures have a very high probability of going to target before being invalidated (over 65% here). I want to position long before we get there on a break and acceptance above the blue zone.

AUDUSD

Hourly:

Setup: Buying breakout of weekly level 6006

Level: 5990

Notes: I’m buying a breakout in this pair. Bid top of blue box, stop at cross. Setup also mentioned in this previous post.

Yesterday’s roundup

Gold: Took +0.57R on a perfect reaction from my level. I exited due to my evolving R being diminished too much.

GBPCAD: I was stopped out of this on my trailing stop for -0.58R

CADCHF: I exited this as mentioned in the post when it closed through the swing low. I felt I was trapped on the wrong side of the level. Sod’s law it’s trading above my entry and has quite a nice looking candle on the daily, but I did the right thing. The long setup on a breakout of higher levels is still valid if we can get it. (-0.81R at half size so -0.41R if you calculate it that way). I don’t.

Gold, CADCHF, GBPAUD, GBPCAD Outlook 24/03/20

Gold

Daily:

Hourly:

Some interesting areas in Gold….

There are two trades I have orders in for, a long and a short.

Long

Setup: Bid if past ATR

Level: 1508.41

Notes: After we’ve bounced from the daily level 1486.78, accepted above, I believe this is a good area to be a buyer for a small bounce.

Short

Setup: Offered if past ATR

Level: 1632.55

Notes: Lots of old support, now flipped and it’s way past ATR today. Looking to sell a rally and buy back at the next downside level.

CADCHF

Weekly:

4 Hourly:

Setup: Bid blue area on a breakout and acceptance above area

Level: 0.6885-6924

Notes: Huge weekly hammer which has faked out a weekly level. I want to see this breakout to confirm the hammer.

Full disclosure I’m currently long from the lower white line, stop at the cross. This is an aggressive entry into the trade. This trade is also at half my usual risk due to another open position in GBPCAD. I’ll cut this position if we get an H4 close below the current swing low, as it will mean I’m trapped on the wrong side of the level.

GBPAUD

Daily:

Setup: Short on D1 close through upper orange area

Level: 1.9670

Notes: If we get a daily close below 1.9640 I’ll offer the level just above it. If we get a strong close through here I believe we can run down to 1.9290.

This trade will again be at half my usual risk due to my current GBPCAD position.

EURGBP, AUDUSD, GBPCAD Outlook 23/03/20

I’m going to try to do market outlook updates when there are interesting things in the markets. This is the first. (We’ll see how long this lasts….). Here it is:

EURGBP

Hourly Chart:

Setup: Bid if past ATR

Level: 0.8938

Notes: This is a good area of former resistance on the chart, it is just below a former Weekly resistance level and flush with a 38% fib. This level is being bid ONLY if past ATR on the day we move into it. Any further support on top of the level will render it untradable.

AUDUSD

Hourly Chart:

Setup: Break and acceptance above level. Bid retest if possible.

Level: 0.5985-6006

Notes: Big weekly level at prices seen for the first time since 2008. If we break back above this level and find price acceptance, a decent move will ensue.

GBPCAD

Weekly Chart:

Daily Chart:

Setup: Got short on daily close below 1.6919 after weekly bearish engulfing and daily bearish engulfing closed through key level.

Level: 1.6919

Notes: Looking for a decent move here. We’ve just tagged a key trouble area, and caught quite a big bounce on Friday, only to be met with another move down. Perhaps this could be the upside flush down before we continue down to my eventual target at 1.5736. I’ll look to trail the stop on D1 closes through key levels (marked). Initial stop was 1.7119, now at 1.7032. We’ll see.

Crude Oil – Chart of the Day: 3rd May 2018

Crude Oil is the main focus going into 3rd May. There is some interesting structure at play in this market, as outlined on the chart.

 

a chart showing crude oil

Dax – Chart of the Day: 2nd May 2018

One of the most interesting charts out there at the minute – Dax is below a big area on the hourly chart. A good play would be to look for longs at the 12480 area in preparation for a probe of 12650 liquidity.

If the lower level isn’t tagged before we take the highs, it will be worth looking for longs off of 12650 as we explore to new areas of value. I will only be looking for longs there if we accept above – meaning we spend time above there and don’t immediately fall back into the range.

 

A chart showing the Dax and a trading setup on it

Anatomy of a Breakout – EURUSD: Chart of the Day – 19th April

 

 

Anatomy of a breakout.

Firstly, note that 1 & 2 and 4 & 5 are pretty much the same structure, with 4 & 5 being within
the larger pattern of 1 & 2.

At (1), we put in multiple highs (also an inside day high). This becomes an area which is likely
to have stops build up beyond it. This becomes somewhat of magnetic price point.

At (2), we can see a support level which was previously resistance on the left. This is then broken
at (3). However, price cannot hold below (3) and is making new highs again.

(4) is the same multiple high structure as (1).

(5) sees a repeat of (2) – move below support but cannot hold below it, we are immediately bid.

(6) seals the fate of any bear. At this point we know – with great probability – that we are going
to find out what’s above (1).

USDCAD: Chart of the Day – 20th March 2018

Today’s chart of the day, USDCAD, has broken out of a large area of resistance. The 1.2980 area is visible on both the hourly and daily charts. We had a solid punch through the area during Thursday’s trade, meaning I am now looking for a return to the area.

Upon return to the area I will look to buy, and am currently bid 1.2976. My target is currently 1.3045, my stop is 1.2927. This gives around 1.5R. The order is subject to change, should new structure form ahead, thereby changing the trade dynamics.